An adaptive approach: navigating resilience planning for ports

UK ports come in all shapes and sizes, have multiple uses and a diverse cargo mix – but whatever their scale and function, they play an important role in keeping the economy ticking over.

In 2024, around 85% of all international freight traded with the UK was moved by sea. Not only are large ports essential to ensure the smooth transit of international goods and the continuity of complex global supply chains: smaller ports act as regional trading hubs, supporting important regional and local economies such as agriculture and tourism, and can be a lifeline for small island communities.

While different ports may have very different roles, risks and requirements, their resilience is inextricably tied up with the resilience of the UK economy, and as such, they must be capable of withstanding anticipated stresses and threats throughout their lifespan.  

Understanding the threats 

One of the biggest threats we face right now – and for the foreseeable future – is climate change. Extreme and adverse events are becoming increasingly prevalent, with serious consequences for all kinds of infrastructure across the globe.

Rising sea levels are not the only threat to ports. When combined with increased storminess and pressure changes, the magnitude of tidal surges increases, with the potential to severely damage port infrastructure, cut off vital power supplies, and disrupt operations. Assets and people are also at risk from the effects of extreme temperatures, which can change the characteristics, behaviour and corrosion rates of many widely-used materials.

Another key consideration for ports is the potential impact of climate change on the behaviour and habitat of migratory and invasive species. Many ports are located near environmentally-sensitive sites, often with statutory designations, and are obligated to cooperate with conservations efforts. With large numbers of species predicted to move into more northern waters as sea temperatures rise, new challenges will emerge.

Responding to the challenge 

AtkinsRéalis endorses an adaptive approach to resilience planning, which we believe is key to responding to the climate challenge in a way that is both future-proof and realistic. 
An adaptive approach encourages sustainable investment in resilience measures, that are strengthened gradually over time and reinforced by continual monitoring. This creates a feedback loop that enables risks to be reassessed on a regular basis, leading to low-regret decisions.
It consists of three steps: 

Anticipate 
Assess the current climate impact and understand future risk to make the case for change.

Adapt
Prioritise interventions and design solutions to mitigate future risk.

Withstand and recover
Implement physical, organisational and operational transformation to keep ports running and realise new opportunities. 

Over the years, we’ve learnt that the starting point for any resilience planning, no matter what the size or scope of a business, is to really get to know the asset base and understand its exposure to climate risks. This involves looking carefully at the criticality (importance of an asset to operations, and the impact of failure), vulnerability (weaknesses that could be exploited, such as asset condition or materials of construction) and hazard exposure (the asset position and probability of a hazard occurring ) combined, to work out the real picture of risk. 

Performing an adaptation gap analysis compares projected climate risk with the current state of preparedness, and scenario planning can then help us bridge the gap. This enables a cost-benefit analysis of various scenarios and matches appropriate responses to the level and type of risk identified, informing design of new infrastructure, as well as maintenance planning for existing assets. 

Adaptive pathways support decision-making about how – and when – to act, and dynamic solutions that mirror real-time weather patterns, available resources, and asset condition and criticality can be implemented. This helps the port and its stakeholders build a financial case for investment in operations planning as well as long-term infrastructure.

Implementing resilience plans

The way UK ports operate is a significant challenge when it comes to a holistic approach to resilience implementation, with various ownership models to navigate, and a complex system that means ports don’t have control over things like external road and rail routes or energy supply. It also creates a unique multi-stakeholder environment – including port authorities, shipping companies, cargo owners, regulatory agencies, NGOs, energy companies, local and central government bodies, and the local community – which requires close collaboration on a huge scale. 

While there’s a great deal that ports can do to build the kind of climate resilience required for an uncertain future, it can’t be done by ports alone, and it can’t be done all at once. It’s important to take a realistic approach to implementation that is financially sustainable. 

Anticipating and understanding risk is key to resilience planning, so that responsive plans can be made, no matter how small. Whatever size the port, and whatever resources it has access to, an adaptive approach provides the necessary tools to make a start – with the things that need to be done, now – and work through a prioritised list of next steps, building resilience incrementally and navigating the climate challenge as it evolves.