North Carolina US 74 Corridor Resilience Study

A major transportation corridor in North Carolina is facing an increasing amount of climate change challenges including large storms, hurricanes and heat waves. The North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) needed to assess its vulnerabilities to continued growth, future weather challenges and the resulting impact on travel-related carbon footprint to help make the infrastructure more resilient to impending climate change disruption.

The North Carolina Risk Assessment and Resilience Plan was released in 2020 as the state’s most comprehensive effort to prepare the region for future climate impacts. As a framework to prepare and respond to the threat of natural hazards and extreme events, it provides strategies and recommendations to improve resiliency within the state. As part of the North Carolina Climate Risk and Resilience Plan, we performed a resiliency study to help NCDOT better understand the potential transportation vulnerabilities that can be expected by continued population growth and future weather challenges. The study deployed a holistic analysis of the 190-mile stretch of US 74 from the coastal city of Wilmington to Charlotte near the center of the State using our City Simulator tool that integrates geographic information system (GIS) data and computational models for testing. This innovative technology created a digital twin, or virtual representation, of the 3,800 square-mile US 74 corridor.

The City Simulator model combined both economic-driven urbanization and climate change-influenced disasters including storms, heat waves and droughts. It contained the US 74 highway and all supporting transportation infrastructure including buildings, natural systems, bridges, culverts and critical facilities.

The tool simulated a population of avatars that statistically matched the real population and economic diversity so the disruption to people’s lives could be quantified and foreseen over the next 30 to 40 years. The implementation of a digital twin allows the team to perform scenario-based testing to predict failures, identify risks and apply mitigation. The results ultimately helped NCDOT determine goals for future US 74 resiliency, stress test mitigation and adaptation scenarios against future conditions within the City Simulator model.

An array of metrics was quantified from the simulation model to expose how climate change will have an impact on the US 74 corridor. The metrics included annual trips disrupted by future flood and heat events, commerce unrealized due to sunny-day tidal flooding, cost of damage to transportation infrastructure, loss of productivity from agents not getting to work, tons of freight not delivered and the cost of maintenance and operation of the transportation assets.

We implemented a deterioration curve model to forecast future conditions of the assets. This allowed the team to plan for minor and major refurbishment and replacement projects when assets reach quantified trigger levels which, in turn, created a schedule of capital projects with associated costs and expected disruptions in the travel schedule. Our multilateral analysis of the expansive corridor equipped NCDOT with the means to implement data-driven decision making in their plan of action towards climate change resilience including considerations for disadvantaged populations along the corridor.

As part of our team’s successful resiliency study, City Simulator’s adaptation scenarios, set against future conditions, ultimately helped NCDOT formulate preparations for stress mitigation and identify tangible goals for resiliency along US 74. A key component in the overall North Carolina Risk Assessment and Resilience Plan, the study’s findings created a comprehensive plan that adapts to changing conditions, manages risk and protects, maintains and supports the state’s extensive transportation network. The result is an unprecedented way to evaluate how North Carolina will evolve, helping the state conceptualize maintenance needs, emergency response plans and climate change monitoring, and create smarter transportation infrastructure with bolstered resilience to imminent weather challenges and impending climate change disruption.

The project received an Honors Award in the Water & Environment category from The American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) of North Carolina and a Grand Award from ACEC Metro Washington.

Want more?

Listen to our Built + Beyond Understanding Transportation Vulnerabilities and Resilience Through a Digital Twin podcast. Stephen Bourne, AtkinsRéalis resiliency expert, and Matt Lauffer, North Carolina DOT hydraulics design engineer, explain how a City Simulator digital twin helped NCDOT assess vulnerabilities to continued growth and future climate change to help make a 200-mile corridor more resilient.