Meet the experts: Adam Conner

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Defense

Adam Conner

Technical Consultant, Aerospace, Defence, Security and Technology, Bristol, United Kingdom contact form+44 1454 66 2411

Adam Conner is AtkinsRéalis’ Future Flight Technology Lead, bringing deep market and technical expertise to deliver strategic advisory projects across the world to investors, regulators and Vertiport developers.

We asked Adam for his predictions on the future of the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector, and how he sees the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) market evolving.

Which eVTOL should we be looking out for in the next few years?

Early pioneers Joby and Volocopter are set to kickstart the market with aircraft certified by 2025. Whether this first-mover advantage pays off, however, remains to be seen. In the US, Archer and Beta are following closely in Joby’s footsteps, targeting different regions and business models. The patient, corporate-backed entities also shouldn’t be underestimated. Whilst operating out of the limelight, Embraer’s Eve, Airbus’ CityAirbus and Hyundai’s Supernal could all become key players in the future market. With planned demonstrations from multiple original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the coming 12 months, I expect that we are soon going to learn more about public reception of eVTOLs as they hit the mainstream in full force.

Is the market heading for consolidation?

For as long as I can remember in this sector, market pundits have predicted an impending consolidation which, to date, has not yet come in full force. Naturally, looking at the history of the aviation sector it makes sense that a few key players will eventually dominate. With a challenging private funding environment and high burn-rates for aircraft development, I think we are now on track for some strategic acquisitions this year. This is being aided by the convergence of OEMs on common architectural decisions (i.e., Vectored Thrust), which could offer valuable know-how and intellectual property (IP) that’s worth acquiring. This could be particularly important for filling niche capability gaps that will be needed to scale the market such as autonomous systems, high reliability batteries and digital systems for managing the flight operations.

What are your predictions for the future of the UK AAM sector?

Whilst the UK may not be the first, or largest, AAM market globally, I think it will become a known as a key Centre of Excellence for advanced research, regulatory leadership, and technology development. Through public sector funding like the Future Flight Challenge, we have developed an industry-leading enabling technology ecosystem that will really come into fruition as aircraft enter into service. This is a valuable export opportunity which we must take advantage of in the coming years. Eventually, I still see potential for a vibrant UK market, particularly for regional connectivity underserved by existing transport modes.

What are your predictions for the future of the Zero Emission Aviation sector?

The UK has a very strong technical leadership role in the wider Zero Emission Aviation sector, with ZeroAvia and Cranfield Aerospace keeping up with global competition from the likes of Universal Hydrogen. Whilst these start-ups missed the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) funding environment that propelled eVTOL developers forward, they have still been highly effective at raising capital and engaging in research and development. Following the eVTOL sector, I predict that the pace will depend on greatly on the ability to rapidly develop regulations to keep up with the innovation.

Powering the future of flight magazine cover

In our magazine, Powering the Future of Flight, we explore the challenges – and the opportunities – electric engines bring to powering the future of flight.

Read James Richmond’s article on the key challenges facing electric engine designers, Andrew Caughey’s discussion of the considerations for integration into aircraft, and Adam Conner’s analysis of the state of the funding environment and how the UK can remain a front-runner in the sector.

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