A fragmented future? Why the Maritimes need more power grid integration

Canada’s race to net zero isn’t just on – it’s speeding up. To maintain momentum, we must progress towards implementing inter-provincial power system planning, to balance local resource development with regional power transfers. In the various Maritime provinces, for example, the generation assets have historically been planned and developed largely to meet the local load only. This approach made sense in Canada 30 years ago, but today, the electricity sector’s response to climate change and emission targets will require Maritime provinces to join a regional planning effort so as to enjoy mutual benefits as we move along the electrification pathway to net zero.

For years, the energy transition has been heralded. Now, it’s here. Since 2021, when the Canadian Net Zero Emissions Accountability Act pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, energy utilities and regional authorities have endeavoured to present credible plans towards this target. Yet since then, Canada’s climate commitments have grown even more ambitious, and now include exceeding 2030 emission targets. And all this amid a growing population, a more volatile climate, and an unstable world characterized by increasing geopolitical and socioeconomic tensions.

Meeting our net zero commitments and ushering in the sustainable green economy of the future depends on the extent to which we can cooperate across our regions. To unlock our potential, we must move towards an inter-provincial power system planning approach. From energy efficiency improvements to large-scale energy storage and the implementation of smart grids, the solutions demanded by our net zero targets require a holistic approach. A foundation of regional energy planning puts them within our reach.

The Maritimes provide us a case study on the potential benefits of regional power grid integration, and what we stand to gain if we work together. Provinces can leverage one another’s strength, reducing waste and doubling down on comparative advantage. Areas with excess renewable energy can bolster neighbouring regions in need of clean energy, helping to overcome the risk of intermittency, and benefiting from economies of scale in the process. In turn, these improvements can lay the foundation for the wider transformation of Canada’s energy system.

In addition to adopting an inter-regional approach to power sector planning, we will also need to implement mechanisms to maintain coordination, such as establishing a regional power system operator and developing equitable cost recovery and benefit sharing mechanisms. Yet if we are to overcome inefficiencies and achieve these benefits, we must unite disparate provincial planning processes so that they are capable of holistic, far-sighted decisions that make effective use of existing resources while ensuring broad progress towards goals that everyone can get behind: cleaner energy, resilient and reliable power, and a more equal society to enjoy these benefits.

System Planning in a Canadian Context

Historically, independent provincial planning made sense. Canada’s sheer size and diversity decreed that individual regions were better off finding solutions optimal to their own location, climate, and demography. However, as climate change accelerates, energy demand increases, and the risk of intermittency grows in tandem with the proliferation of renewables, and a lack of coordination exacerbates these problems. For example, New Brunswick’s power grid is facing a rapid transition away from coal generation, following the federal government’s 2018 commitment to retire all coal-generation by 2030. In 2023, the New Brunswick Integrated Resource Plan indicated that this target would be missed, deferring the retirement of coal power generation to beyond 2030. In New Brunswick’s case, and likely for other provinces as well, it’s hard to commit the large capital investments necessary to replace low-cost, reliable fossil fuels.

The problem isn’t confined to New Brunswick. Each province tends to focus solely on its resources and planning, thus failing to take full advantage of the complementarity of one region's resources relative to another. Provinces like Newfoundland and Labrador, with significant hydroelectric power, can provide the baseload for neighboring provinces like Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, enabling them to transition from coal. Areas with significant potential for hydro, wind, or solar power could provide clean energy more reliably and economically. But without greater coordination, such opportunities may be missed, leaving our renewable resources underutilised.

Better for everyone

Regions have long understood that climate goals demand greater collaboration. Often, however, this incentive to integrate is crowded out by more immediate concerns. Provinces are preoccupied with the specific needs of their own localities. In such contexts, striving for ambitious regional goals feels like a luxury. Moreover, historically it has been more economically advantageous for each province to meet the electricity demands of the United States, rather than its neighbouring Canadian provinces. The development of broader regional grids, and an eventual pan-Canadian grid, may very well depend upon the introduction of incentives from the federal government that promote inter-provincial electricity exchanges.

Yet regional integration benefits locals, too - and not just by improving compliance. A more interconnected and cooperatively planned system can better manage the variability of renewable energy sources and provide backup during outages or peak demand periods.  Without regional integration, provinces are more vulnerable to supply disruptions. As renewables proliferate, the risk of intermittency increases, as we struggle to replace energy dense, easily storable fossil fuels with clean but capricious alternatives. A diverse, well balanced energy mix benefits everyone; but this can’t be achieved by individual regions alone.

Beyond intermittency, integration can also solve the broader issue of applying innovations. Like a diverse energy mix, innovative solutions requiring scale are harder to implement in a fragmented system. Fragmentation obstructs the common standards, interoperability, and shared vision necessary to incentivize and disseminate new solutions. Despite their huge potential, large-scale projects like the deployment of smart grids, energy storage and advanced nuclear technologies are harder to get off the ground when planning is isolated.

With their collective investment, planning, and incentives, regional integration brings added heft and direction to technological innovations, allowing regions to smash through barriers together and reap the benefits.

First steps towards a Pan-Canadian Grid

Ultimately, our power grid exists to serve human needs - not the other way around. In a rapidly changing world, the isolated processes and approaches of the past are no longer capable of delivering the type of world we want to live in. Tomorrow’s energy system could ensure that the Maritimes enjoy clean, reliable, and affordable power, with all the resulting social and economic benefits. The same argument can be made for various regions across Canada, where greater benefits can be achieved through inter-provincial planning and coordination. By contrast, linear and siloed approaches will reduce resilience and put our ambitious climate goals in jeopardy.

It won’t always be easy - and, like all significant change, regional integration carries risks of its own. Yet sticking with ‘business as usual’ is quickly becoming the riskier option. Standing still would be disastrous. And while we can’t go back to the abundant, cheap energy of the post-war boom, we can move forward to a cleaner, fairer, and better world. It starts with choosing togetherness over division, and planning an energy system that suits us all.