on this page
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Markets
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Services
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Location
Indonesia
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Client
Confidential
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Completion date
2019
Atlas Fung
Associate Director - Transportation and Water, Asia contact form+65 6675 0933
Transforming Mobility in Southeast Asia
The Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Rail (HSR) is Southeast Asia’s first high-speed railway and a landmark infrastructure investment for Indonesia, marking a step change in national connectivity and economic development. Spanning 142 km and running at a speed of 350 km/h, the line connects Jakarta and Bandung, reducing journey times from three hours to 45 minutes and transforming one of the region’s busiest transport corridors.
Officially inaugurated in October 2023, the project is a flagship Belt and Road Initiative collaboration between Indonesia and China, and one of the first international railways to fully adopt Chinese high-speed rail standards, systems, and technology. It plays a key role in accelerating economic growth, strengthening regional connectivity, and enabling transit-oriented development (TOD) along the corridor.
Please note that you are now leaving the AtkinsRéalis website (legal name: AtkinsRéalis Group inc.) and entering a website maintained by a third party (the "External Website") and that you do so at your own risk.
AtkinsRéalis has no control over the External Website, any data or other content contained therein or any additional linked websites. The link to the External Website is provided for convenience purposes only. By clicking "Accept" you acknowledge and agree that AtkinsRéalis is not responsible, and does not accept or assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever for the data protection policy, the content, the data or the technical operation of the External Website and/or any linked websites and that AtkinsRéalis is not liable for the terms and conditions (or terms of use) of the External Website. Further, you acknowledge and agree that you assume all risks resulting from entering and/or using the External Website and/or any linked websites.
BY ENTERING THE EXTERNAL WEBSITE, YOU ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE AND AGREE THAT YOU COMPLETELY AND IRREVOCABLY WAIVE ANY AND ALL RIGHTS AND CLAIMS AGAINST ATKINSRÉALIS, AND RELEASE, DISCHARGE, INDEMNIFY AND HOLD HARMLESS ATKINSRÉALIS, ITS OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, DIRECTORS AND AGENTS FROM ANY AND ALL LIABILITY INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIABILITY FOR LOSS, DAMAGES, EXPENSES AND COSTS ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH ENTERING AND/OR USING THE EXTERNAL WEBSITE AND/OR ANY LINKED WEBSITES AND ANY DATA AND/OR CONTENT CONTAINED THEREIN.
Such waiver and release specifically includes, without limitation, any and all rights and claims pertaining to reliance on the data or content of the External Website, or claims pertaining to the processing of personal data, including but not limited to any rights under any applicable data protection statute. You also recognize by clicking “Accept” that the terms of this disclaimer are reasonable.
The information provided by Virtua Research cited herein is provided “as is” and “as available” without warranty of any kind. Use of any Virtua Research data is at a user’s own risk and Virtua Research disclaims any liability for use of the Virtua Research data. Although the information is obtained or compiled from reliable sources Virtua Research neither can nor does guarantee or make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, validity, sequence, timeliness, completeness or continued availability of any information or data, including third-party content, made available herein. In no event shall Virtua Research be liable for any decision made or action or inaction taken in reliance on any information or data, including third-party content. Virtua Research further explicitly disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, including warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement.
The consensus estimate provided by Virtua Research is based on estimates, forecasts and predictions made by third party financial analysts, as described above. It is not prepared based on information provided by AtkinsRéalis and can only be seen as a consensus view on AtkinsRéalis' possible future results from an outside perspective. AtkinsRéalis has not provided input on these forecasts, except by referring to past publicly disclosed information. AtkinsRéalis does not accept any responsibility for the quality or accuracy of any individual or average of forecasts or estimates. This web page contains forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by third parties. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between AtkinsRéalis' actual future results, financial situation, development or performance, and the estimates given here.
A First-of-Its-Kind Investment Challenge
As Indonesia’s first high-speed rail system, the project faced complex financial and strategic challenges typical of large-scale infrastructure in emerging markets. Demand and revenue projections were inherently uncertain, shaped by passenger behaviour, pricing sensitivity, and competition from established transport modes.
The scale of capital investment placed significant pressure on commercial viability, requiring a careful balance between affordability and long-term sustainability. This was further compounded by a non-sovereign financing structure, with no direct state funding or guarantees, making a robust and bankable investment case critical.
The integration of transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture added further complexity, with real estate performance playing a key role in overall returns.
Together, these factors made independent, evidence-based due diligence essential to support investment decisions and mitigate risk.
Our Role: Independent Financial and Development Advisor
AtkinsRéalis’ involvement began in 2016 during the planning and financing stages, well ahead of construction, which commenced. We provided integrated market, financial, and development due diligence – as a one-stop-shop - to support the project proponent at a critical stage before financial close.
The railway is delivered and operated by PT Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC), a binational joint venture comprising an Indonesian state-owned enterprise consortium (60%) and a Chinese consortium (40%). With no direct state budget funding or sovereign guarantee, the project required a disciplined, market-driven approach to financial structuring and risk assessment.
Our work focused on the relationship between patronage demand, revenue performance, and financial viability. We assessed how changes in key assumptions would influence catchment, service strategy, and the strength of the investment case, while analyzing the interaction between capital costs, operating assumptions, revenue projections, and financing terms to determine overall feasibility.
Key services included:
- Market Review – Independent review and stress-testing of patronage forecasts, including willingness-to-pay and modal shift assumptions, and the development of alternative demand scenarios
- Financial Review – Evaluation of the financial model and commercial terms, supported by independent shadow financial models to validate assumptions and test sensitivities
- Investment Case Assessment – Analysis of how market and financial findings influenced overall feasibility, risk allocation, and long-term sustainability
Enhancing Value through Transit Oriented Development
Building on the above-mentioned advisory mandate, AtkinsRéalis was subsequently appointed to lead transit-oriented development (TOD) strategy enhancement for three key stations. This included reviewing overarching TOD and real estate investment approaches, assessing how an integrated “rail + property” model could enhance land value capture, and aligning TOD with the project’s commercial and transaction framework to support long-term value creation.
Please note that you are now leaving the AtkinsRéalis website (legal name: AtkinsRéalis Group inc.) and entering a website maintained by a third party (the "External Website") and that you do so at your own risk.
AtkinsRéalis has no control over the External Website, any data or other content contained therein or any additional linked websites. The link to the External Website is provided for convenience purposes only. By clicking "Accept" you acknowledge and agree that AtkinsRéalis is not responsible, and does not accept or assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever for the data protection policy, the content, the data or the technical operation of the External Website and/or any linked websites and that AtkinsRéalis is not liable for the terms and conditions (or terms of use) of the External Website. Further, you acknowledge and agree that you assume all risks resulting from entering and/or using the External Website and/or any linked websites.
BY ENTERING THE EXTERNAL WEBSITE, YOU ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE AND AGREE THAT YOU COMPLETELY AND IRREVOCABLY WAIVE ANY AND ALL RIGHTS AND CLAIMS AGAINST ATKINSRÉALIS, AND RELEASE, DISCHARGE, INDEMNIFY AND HOLD HARMLESS ATKINSRÉALIS, ITS OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, DIRECTORS AND AGENTS FROM ANY AND ALL LIABILITY INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIABILITY FOR LOSS, DAMAGES, EXPENSES AND COSTS ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH ENTERING AND/OR USING THE EXTERNAL WEBSITE AND/OR ANY LINKED WEBSITES AND ANY DATA AND/OR CONTENT CONTAINED THEREIN.
Such waiver and release specifically includes, without limitation, any and all rights and claims pertaining to reliance on the data or content of the External Website, or claims pertaining to the processing of personal data, including but not limited to any rights under any applicable data protection statute. You also recognize by clicking “Accept” that the terms of this disclaimer are reasonable.
The information provided by Virtua Research cited herein is provided “as is” and “as available” without warranty of any kind. Use of any Virtua Research data is at a user’s own risk and Virtua Research disclaims any liability for use of the Virtua Research data. Although the information is obtained or compiled from reliable sources Virtua Research neither can nor does guarantee or make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, validity, sequence, timeliness, completeness or continued availability of any information or data, including third-party content, made available herein. In no event shall Virtua Research be liable for any decision made or action or inaction taken in reliance on any information or data, including third-party content. Virtua Research further explicitly disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, including warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement.
The consensus estimate provided by Virtua Research is based on estimates, forecasts and predictions made by third party financial analysts, as described above. It is not prepared based on information provided by AtkinsRéalis and can only be seen as a consensus view on AtkinsRéalis' possible future results from an outside perspective. AtkinsRéalis has not provided input on these forecasts, except by referring to past publicly disclosed information. AtkinsRéalis does not accept any responsibility for the quality or accuracy of any individual or average of forecasts or estimates. This web page contains forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by third parties. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between AtkinsRéalis' actual future results, financial situation, development or performance, and the estimates given here.
Catalyst for Long Term Economic Growth and Social Impact
The Jakarta–Bandung HSR drives long-term economic transformation by strengthening connectivity and regional integration across one of Indonesia’s most important corridors.
A 75% reduction in journey time boosts the country’s productivity, enhances labour mobility, supports urban development and stimulates tourism and other economic activities. The line also provides a foundation for future high-speed rail expansion across Java, aligning with Indonesia’s long-term national development vision Visi Indonesia Emas 2045 (Golden Indonesia 2045).
Delivering Lasting Value and Investment Confidence
AtkinsRéalis provided independent, evidence-based advisory that strengthened the commercial foundations of Indonesia’s first high-speed rail investment. Through rigorous validation of demand forecasts and financial assumptions, we helped de-risk investment decisions and enhance confidence in the business case.
Our work improved financial robustness by identifying key sensitivities and aligning transport and TOD strategies to support sustainable, long-term value. By integrating financial discipline with land use planning, we contributed to a more resilient investment structure – ensuring the project is deliverable, commercially viable, and future-ready.
Please note that you are now leaving the AtkinsRéalis website (legal name: AtkinsRéalis Group inc.) and entering a website maintained by a third party (the "External Website") and that you do so at your own risk.
AtkinsRéalis has no control over the External Website, any data or other content contained therein or any additional linked websites. The link to the External Website is provided for convenience purposes only. By clicking "Accept" you acknowledge and agree that AtkinsRéalis is not responsible, and does not accept or assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever for the data protection policy, the content, the data or the technical operation of the External Website and/or any linked websites and that AtkinsRéalis is not liable for the terms and conditions (or terms of use) of the External Website. Further, you acknowledge and agree that you assume all risks resulting from entering and/or using the External Website and/or any linked websites.
BY ENTERING THE EXTERNAL WEBSITE, YOU ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE AND AGREE THAT YOU COMPLETELY AND IRREVOCABLY WAIVE ANY AND ALL RIGHTS AND CLAIMS AGAINST ATKINSRÉALIS, AND RELEASE, DISCHARGE, INDEMNIFY AND HOLD HARMLESS ATKINSRÉALIS, ITS OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES, DIRECTORS AND AGENTS FROM ANY AND ALL LIABILITY INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIABILITY FOR LOSS, DAMAGES, EXPENSES AND COSTS ARISING OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH ENTERING AND/OR USING THE EXTERNAL WEBSITE AND/OR ANY LINKED WEBSITES AND ANY DATA AND/OR CONTENT CONTAINED THEREIN.
Such waiver and release specifically includes, without limitation, any and all rights and claims pertaining to reliance on the data or content of the External Website, or claims pertaining to the processing of personal data, including but not limited to any rights under any applicable data protection statute. You also recognize by clicking “Accept” that the terms of this disclaimer are reasonable.
The information provided by Virtua Research cited herein is provided “as is” and “as available” without warranty of any kind. Use of any Virtua Research data is at a user’s own risk and Virtua Research disclaims any liability for use of the Virtua Research data. Although the information is obtained or compiled from reliable sources Virtua Research neither can nor does guarantee or make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, validity, sequence, timeliness, completeness or continued availability of any information or data, including third-party content, made available herein. In no event shall Virtua Research be liable for any decision made or action or inaction taken in reliance on any information or data, including third-party content. Virtua Research further explicitly disclaims, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, including warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement.
The consensus estimate provided by Virtua Research is based on estimates, forecasts and predictions made by third party financial analysts, as described above. It is not prepared based on information provided by AtkinsRéalis and can only be seen as a consensus view on AtkinsRéalis' possible future results from an outside perspective. AtkinsRéalis has not provided input on these forecasts, except by referring to past publicly disclosed information. AtkinsRéalis does not accept any responsibility for the quality or accuracy of any individual or average of forecasts or estimates. This web page contains forward-looking statements based on current assumptions and forecasts made by third parties. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between AtkinsRéalis' actual future results, financial situation, development or performance, and the estimates given here.